Saturday, February 10, 2018

What does the Stock Market point to?

It  is often said that the US Stock Market points to anticipated events. So, it is natural to ask/inquire as to the target to be illuminated by the gyrations of the Stock Market. Let me pull together some of my readings on the subject.

1. Some economists expect the GDP to grow by 5% in the first quarter of 2018. This is fuelled by the tax cuts and the executive orders of Pres Trump to remove crippling regulations put in place by the Obama regime to slow the economy.

2. The US has become self sufficient in terms of oil production. In fact, now we are exporting natural gas and oil.

3. True, the valuations of a lot of stocks is very high, but what we have seen in the Market is an up and down gyration. The DOW in fact moved a total of 20,000 points when you add the up and down moves. That means that large trading aggregates that can clear trades in very short times are making money big time.

4. Some analysts expect inflation to pick up, giving credence to the idea that the Market is reacting to expected rises in interest rates. Four rises in  rates is talked about by the FED.

5. An article on KITCO points out that the Market is behaving similarly to what it did in 2008, including the lag in gold price and the stocks of miners. Just a reminder: in 2008 the financial order was threatened by the meltdown of the mortgage industry.

Then there is Jim Rickards. Mr Rickards has a new gloom and doom scenario every month. His latest is that various entities (including the IMF) will introduce a world currency (special drawing rights or SDR's) and that this will displace the US Dollar as the world's  reserve currency. This will lead to a financial meltdown, especially in the US. In addition, the SDRs will be  cleared outside of US control. As  a consequence Treasuries and Dollars will be dumped. When? March 1.

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