Sunday, September 27, 2009

Stock Market sayings being tested.

1. The huge volume reversal. I was waiting for this myself. The traditional end to a Bear Market is a gigantic sell off (when all the small investors give up) and then the big boys come in and scoop up the shares for a song and dance. It did not happen. The Bear Market ended not with a bang, but with a whimper.

2. "Sell in May and go away." If you were doing that, you missed most of the rally so far.

3. Is this a new Bull or a Bear Market rally? We still do not know and if you are going to wait until we know for sure, there won't be a point in getting in. Obama's policies will not fix the economy. Even the Communists of Chinese (who, unlike Obama, joined the Party that openly espouses their beliefs) are appalled by the policies of the Obamabots.

4. The Stock Market reflects the expected earnings of the companies. No, it doesn't.

5. The next saying that will be tested has to do with the buying surge following Yom Kippur. That's Tuesday. Will it happen? I do not know.

6. Testing the 200 DMA limitation. It is often said that the DJI can's stay above its 200 DMA (moving average) for long. Well, let's see.



The first graphic shows the current S&P 500 averages running way above the 200 DMA. Is this unusual? Let's look at two other Bull Markets.

The graphic above shows the 1974-76 Bull Market. It had a considerable length of time when the S&P 500 ran above the 200 DMA. The 1992-94 period had even a longer stay above the 200 DMA(see graphic below). Of course, that was a period when the policies of RR finally began to take hold.

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