Monday, July 25, 2016

PM correction:how long, how deep?

I just got a note this morning that Precious Metals and their minors are undergoing a correction. No kidding Charlie Brown - like I haven't noticed? What I wasn't told is how deep and how long? So, I will attempt to answer that via charts.
 
 
Here is the chart for gold. And here is the chart for silver.
 
Note that both gold and silver showed a reverse head and shoulder beginning May 1 and added on the  depth of the reverse head and shoulder by the middle of July. So, when will the current correction end? SOMETIME BY THE END OF AUGUST. How do I get to this guess? By looking at the drop in price and where it intersects the 50 Day Moving Average.
 
Most people do not buy gold or silver in bulk and can participate in the rally by buying gold and silver miners.
 
If all goes according to theory, the miners should start their rally earlier than gold or silver. Let's look at a couple of them.
 
 
Above is the graph of THM. This is a stock that hit $6 before the orchestrated takedown of gold in 2011. Note that it is reaching the intersection with its 50 DMA. When will it happen? Probably next week.
 
 
Then there is FSM, a silver miner primarily. It shows a similar pattern. To get a bit more quantitative, we have to look at the stock price plotted with regular numbers (not a log scale).
 
This shows a similar pattern: a prediction of the intersection date as next week at somewhere above 7. How far will we go next rally? Above 12. Do I guarantee these numbers (i.e. the predictions?). Of course not. But it seems to have some validity, does it not?
 

No comments:

Post a Comment