Saturday, July 30, 2016

Why technical analysis points to gold going to $20,000/oz.

There have been a number of articles pointing to gold prices going to much higher levels than we see today. The question is what this might be based on. One theory is that the Chinese will push gold prices to that height to dethrone  the US Dollar. But the most likely reason for such a forecast is the ratio of the 'St Louis Adjusted Monetary Base' ($BASE) over the price of gold in US Dollars ($GOLD). This is what the plot looks like:
 
The current ratio is 0.25 and historically the ratio peaks at 5. So. we expect gold to top out at
(5./0.25)x1,300=26,000. How about silver? Using the gold to silver ratio as 60, the estimated top for silver is $430. How about miners like FSM? The expectation of the silver top implies that silver price will go up 21 fold. And since a miner goes up 3x-5x the price of silver this type of analysis gives FSM a top out price of $680-$900. 
 
Do I believe that this will happen? I don't know. I would not have believed that the Market would push THM to 22 cents from $6 either.

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