Saturday, July 16, 2016

What will power the next upleg of the gold price?

We have seen enough evidence that gold is in a bull market along with silver. Those who bought gold and silver miners in January had made a bundle.
 
Gold and silver are doing a correction now. Hold on to your assets.
 
So, what will end the correction and power the next leg of the gold bull market?
 
One closely watched quantity is the ratio of gold to the 30 year treasury bill. Here is a long term view of it:
 

In 2011 this quantity began to drop as 30y Treasuries went up and gold went down. Big money bought Treasuries and shorted gold.
 
Let's look at this ratio last year and now:
 
 
 
 
We can identify two featues:
Cup and handle formation (yellow) and
Reverse head and shoulder (green).
 
Big money watches this. When the ratio goes above 8, big money will short Treasuries and go long on gold.
 
Meanwhile, the gold bug index  is not dropping.
 
 

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